June iPhone 5 Release Date May Force Apple, Carriers Into Upgrade Waivers

There’s more to making a June release date for the iPhone 5 possible than just production considerations. Apple and its mobile carriers would have to offer iPhone 4S subscribers upgrade waivers — and that may not be fiscally possible.

The iPhone 5 release date still remains a contentious issue, with the tech community still deliberating over whether Apple will choose to release the new iPhone at this year’s WWDC in June, or wait until the fall in order to put it on track with a 12-month release window from the date of the iPhone 4S release. The iPhone 5 News Blog‘s sources in Asia point to a June release, while the majority of the tech media have now shifted away from that belief, looking towards October or November for the iPhone 5 release.

Whether or not the iPhone 5 is released in June or in November, Apple will have to deal with some blowback from iPhone 4S users, who will be frustrated by the fact that the top U.S. carriers will not allow 4S users to upgrade, unless they offer a waiver to their upgrade policies.

According to Insane Planet, “AT&T subscribers have the right to an upgrade if they bought their phones in the last 12 to 18 months,” while “Verizon Network customers could be the ones affected the most because they can only upgrade their phones after one year and eight months.” Sprint also a similar policy to AT&T: premier account holders can upgrade their devices every twelve months, but basic subscribers have to wait up to 22 months before they can upgrade.

From a customer service standpoint, it would seem like a no-brainer for Apple and its mobile partners to simply offer iPhone 4S subscribers a waiver for these limiting upgrade policies and allow them to purchase the iPhone 5 subsidized prices, once it is released. After all, Apple would want nothing more than to have iPhone 4S users spend even more money to upgrade to the iPhone 5 after only 12 months (or even less if the new iPhone is released in June).

Unfortunately, it may not be that easy.

When it comes to subsidized promotional offers, it is the mobile carrier that eats the cost of that subsidy — not Apple. For carriers like AT&T and Verizon, they are defraying the loss of profit from the same of the new device in order to lock subscribers into a longer contract, as well as the prospect of more data usage. Sprint’s revenue model is a bit less predicated on data usage, thanks to its unlimited dat plan, but the overall model is still the same. It may be prohibitive for the big U.S. mobile carriers to simply “give away” the iPhone 5 to 4S users after only 9 to 12 months of use. This would mean that Apple would have meet carriers halfway on the subsidized iPhone 5 price.

Or not.

Another consideration is that Apple might be content to leave iPhone 4S users out in the cold once the iPhone 5 is released, assuming that its release would herald an avalanche of new sales from legacy iPhone users as well as Android converts that would eclipse the loss of the potential sales that instead went to the iPhone 4S. Apple has sold more than 54 million iPhones since the release of the 4S, and assuming that the vast majority of these sales have been the 4S, that’s a lot of potential subscribers to leave off the table. But the fact is, there are plenty more people to sell to in the smartphone market in any given year. According to statistics I found on Wikipedia, there were over 300 million smartphone sales in 2010 alone (the 2011 numbers are still being crunched). But considering that the smartphone market segment is expanding exponentially, it goes without saying that those numbers will be massively higher in 2012.

Given these facts, Apple might be happy to cede 4S users in order to get the iPhone 5 out into the market. In fact, considering what’s at stake here, it might even be more of an incentive for Apple to release the iPhone 5 in June in order to minimize 4S sales in 2012, since, as we now know, the more people who buy the 4S, the less people will be able to afford the 5.

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Front Cover Sighting Refutes Cryptic iPad 3 Teaser Photo With No Home Button

ipad 3 part with home buttonApple’s own teaser photo of the iPad 3 depicts what appears to be a new tablet device with no home button. But new photos of purported iPad 3 parts show cutouts for a home button. Has Apple created an unintended negative consequence for a poorly chosen press photo?

Early speculation that the new iPad 3 may include a much more overhauled design, complete with a discontinuation of the traditional home button, is now being refuted by tech media outlets claiming to have gotten their hands on iPad 3 parts with home buttons and home button cutouts. The excitement over the prospect of an iPad 3 with no home button came after the release of Apple’s official press invitation teaser photo, which depicts a finger touching the calendar icon on what looks like the lower center of an iPad, but revealing no home button.

But according to M.I.C. Gadget and others, parts for the new iPad 3 have been obtained, and they clearly show a cutout for the home button: “Despite the rumors that Apple would be having no home button on their next-generation iPad, we have gotten our hands on the parts through our sources, and are now able to objectively tell you our readers the truth . . . We do have the front cover piece (in the video above), and despite Apple creatively tilting the iPad to landscape to fuel speculation, (somewhere Tim Cook must be laughing) we can indeed confirm there is a home button.”

Assuming that M.I.C. Gadget‘s photos are real (and that’s a big assumption), they seem more willing to forgive Apple for such a major PR snafu than potential iPad users may be, since their own press photo would account for a real bait and switch.

It’s easy for cynics to blame the hysteria over Apple’s seemingly home button-less iPad 3 teaser photo on the tech media or eager Apple enthusiasts — but come on, that photo doesn’t show a home button. Apple knows better than anyone else the level of scrutiny that all of their teaser photos garner. After all, they are responsible for the hype: over the years, they’ve made these photos increasingly symbolic, adding fuel to the already-hyped rumor mill. But for Apple, they need to be able to deliver on the innuendo of their teaser photos, or risk engineering a big let-down.ipad 3 teaser photo with no home button

If the iPad 3 turns out to include a home button, it most certainly will not hurt its long-term sales — we’ve already written at length about the sales projections for the iPad 3. But from a PR standpoint, this will be the second time in less than a year that Apple will have failed to live up to expectations: up until the day that the iPhone 4S was released, most everyone was expecting an overhauled iPhone 5 or, at the very least, a dal released iPhone 4S and 5.

There is one more thing to consider: the veracity of these iPad 3 part photos. I’ve often argued that Apple keeps its new products’ form factors closest to its vest, and I doubt that it is easy to get your hands on any parts that would give away the entire look of the iPad 3 just days before its official release. In short, I still think there is a good chance that we might see a form factor overhaul and yes, maybe no home button, on the iPad 3.

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AT&T Limits Its Grandfathered-In Unlimited Data Plan; Sprint Could Benefit With 4G iPhone 5

AT&T has tried to match Sprint in the marketplace as a price leader in data plans. But a new report today reveals that the U.S. mobile giant is using limitations and data “throttling” once users reach a data usage threshold, possibly shuttling subscribers to Sprint once the 4G iPhone 5 is released.

Anyone who uses a smartphone has had to make themselves aware of the pricing games that mobile carriers play with users when it comes to data usage. Sprint, America’s third-largest mobile carrier, has made its unlimited data package the crown jewel of its price-leading marketing strategy, and arguably has remained competitive only because of it (even gaining the iPhone has yet to solve Sprint’s earning issues). AT&T and Verizon, both of whom compete as product leaders in the mobile market, have long since abandoned an attempt to compete against Sprint’s unlimited data plans. But for even AT&T’s customers who are grandfathered into AT&T’s old unlimited data plan, remaining unlimited will now come at a price in service quality.

A new report making the rounds today reveals that any attempt that AT&T is making to characterize their unlimited data plan as truly unlimited has officially lost its believability. The San Mateo Daily Journal explains that AT&T will “slow down service for its ‘unlimited data’ subscribers when they hit 3 gigabytes of usage within a billing cycle [and 5 gigabytes for 4G LTE]. Previously, the company had been throttling service when subscribers entered the heaviest 5 percent of data users for that month and that area.” To be sure, if you’re a non-unlimited data plan AT&T customer, this comes as good news, as the dreaded “throttling” will not be applied to your account. But for those who still enjoy unlimited pricing, throttling is coming.

If you’re not familiar with data throttling, you should be: it constitutes a dramatic slowdown in data transfer, making the mobile smartphone experience excruciatingly painful — especially for those accustomed with AT&T’s industry-leading speediness. And ironically, this throttling will tend to affect grandfathered-in unlimited data users who tend to use heavy-duty data, such as for watching movies. For them, the days of enjoying unlimited data and AT&T’s best speeds are over.

AT&T cites the reason for data throttling is to better manage their busy data traffic, which in turn will improve services across the board for all AT&T subscribers. But while this might be a winning strategy for AT&T, it could ironically push some of the most heavy-duty smartphone geeks over to Sprint once the iPhone 5 is released.

iPhone and other smartphone users who were able to remain on AT&T’s unlimited data plan with no restrictions on service quality have been happy to do so, giving them access to the best of both worlds: AT&T service quality and reasonable pricing. But if AT&T iPhone subscribers have to choose between price and performance, they very well may consider jumping over Sprint, since they too will ostensibly offer the iPhone on their own 4G LTE network.

Finally, Sprint could manage to garner all remaining subscribers in the marketplace whose primary object is to find a carrier who will give them steady service and an unlimited data plan. All Sprint will have to do is make sure that their 4G LTE network actually works. And with Sprint, that still remains in question.

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For The iPad 3, 2012 Could Be “The Year of the Price

Tech speculators are looking to Apple’s choice of processors in the upcoming iPad 3 as clues that Cupertino will continue to keep its tablet prices steady. But with all the excitement surrounding the next iPad, this could be the year that Apple really cashes in.

When it comes to setting price for new products, production and components costs factor heavily into the decision. If you traverse the tech wires, then doubtless you’ve seen itemized price breakdowns of the iPhone and iPad, which reveal a better-focused profit margin for what each sold unit brings in. (Apple’s hefty marketing budget also has to be taken into account as well.) To this end, tech analysts are weighing the possible price of the iPad 3 (and iPhone 5 as well) based on which chipsets they decide to go with.

Planet Insane today asserts that, “Although bringing in the Gobi 5 chipset will not help solve the two or four core dilemma of Apple, it seems to be a good choice for the incorporating LTE in Apple’s mobile devices that will be launched this year. Moreover, this may give them significant savings when it comes to the cost of their production and allow their iPhone 5 and iPad 3 to stay in a similar price range for all its other introductory devices.” Much of this thinking is based on the fact that the Gobi 5 will also work with different network connection technologies, essentially creating “one chip to rule them all.”

As a result of this thinking, many believe that the iPad 3 will retain its price point, with the intro model coming in at $500. But for as much as the economics of the chips in the iPad 3 would enable Apple to keep their priced fixed, why would they bother?

Most recent data reveals that Apple’s iPad 3 is poised to dominate the tablet market in new ways that will make its already domineering history seem squalid. We’ve already reported on several eyebrow-raising reports about how a super majority of Kindle users are ready to purchase the iPad 3, and that prospective users essentially aren’t concerned about its price. It appears that the prospect of a 4G LTE iPad 3 will, according to tech analysts, drive massive sales, price hike or not.

So, why wouldn’t Apple take advantage of the public’s seemingly blank check for purchasing the iPad 3? For the first two generations of the iPad, Cupertino has maintained a price-to-value-leading price point in order to dominate the market, forcing competitors to cede the premium tablet segment of the market to Apple and offer cheaper, smaller, lower-profile tablets like the Kindle. But now, even that market model seems to be failing; the tablet market belongs to Apple, and I think they will suck it dry.

After all, the teaser photo of the iPad with no home button already has people second-guessing the notion that the overall form factor and chassis of the iPad 3 will be a mere refresh of the iPad 2. We suggested the outside chance of a new iPad 3 form factor back on February 8th. If Apple delivers on a new tablet design that shocks and awes consumers, the sales explosion will be colossal.

It is also worth noting that all of these late-breaking perspectives about chips and pricing refute much of what has already been said about the iPad 3 pricing. We reported in the past on how adding 4G LTE into the iPad mix could drive up prices, and that new components and form factor would actually drive costs up for both the iPhone 5 and iPad 3.

It is just a hunch, but I don’t think this is going to be a “refresh” year for the iPad by any measure. Apple will be overhauling the iPad, but in design and quite possibly by price.

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iOS 5.1 Rumored For March 9th Release, Security Fix On The Menu

This year, rumors of the announcement and release of the iPad 3 have been tethered with the release of iOS 5 as well. We’ve been covering a wide range of rumors and speculation related to iOS 5, ranging from it fixing the battery drain issues on the iPhone 4S to new updates to Siri and other bells and whistles. Most importantly, the iOS 5.1 release date has been widely speculated on, with the tech world imagining its release to be close to the iPad 3.

New rumors today are pointing to March 9th as the iOS 5.1 release.

According to Planet Insane, “the most recent iOS from Apple might be unveiled on March 9 as suggested by iPhone carriers in Japan and Europe,” explaining also that “the rumored release date of the iPad 3 will correspond with that of the iOS 5.1. The iPad 3 is anticipated to have 4G LTE, which uses up a lot of battery power, and a lot of improvements in terms of its display. So, if the iOS 5.1 indeed solves the battery life problems of the iPhone 4S, it will allow the iPad 3 to reduce energy consumption.”

This isn’t the first time that we’ve heard the March 9th rumor for the iOS 5.1 release date, and the fact that European and Japanese carriers have hinted at March 9th as a possible release date for iOS 5.1 has to be taken with a grain of salt. Furthermore, if what Planet Insane says is true, and that the iPad 3's own challenging battery consumption will rely on iOS 5.1 in order to offer users the longevity they are looking for, then it would stand to reason that iOS 5.1 would need to be ready to go by March 7th at the latest.

Another interesting iOS 5.1-related report comes from Phones Review, who reports that the new operating system iteration could include some security fixes for Apple’s mobile devices. they explain that “a worrying security flaw has been found in iOS that allows third-party developers to gain access to user’s photo and video location data on the iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad, and that as a result, “the problem may not be around for much longer as sources are claiming a fix is already on route to the software. Apple is apparently already aware of the problem and a security fix will be available with the next iOS release.”

For as much as iOS 5.1 may include critical upgrades that will fix battery and security issues, it is more likely that users will find new rumored features, such as rich text formatting for Notes, a new camera button on the lock screen, and expanded multi-language support for Siri.

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iOS 5.1 Code Suggests A5X, A6 Processors On Their Way

The new rumor is that code in iOS 5.1 points to Apple testing both the rumored quad-core A6 and dual-core A5X processors. But does this new “evidence” really bring us any closer to confirming what Apple’s new chip — or chips — will be?

In 2011, the dual-release iPhone 4S/iPhone 5 rumors persisted throughout the Summer, with some of the most well-read tech publications predicting that Apple would offer the iPhone 4S as a low-cost alternative to a premium-priced iPhone 5. Now that 20/20 hindsight has proved that notion to be preposterous (to wit, the iPhone 4 works beautifully as a value-priced altertive to the $s, anyway), it appears that there is now a new dual-release rumor has surfaced, this time concerning Apple’s new, rumored processors.

9to5Mac is leading the way on this new rumor, claiming that the new iOS 5.1 code indicates both a quad-core A6 chip and dual-core A5X chip as well. The folks at 9to5Mac explain it thusly: “. . . the next major iOS device processor revamp (A6, not A5X) would be called the “S5L8950X.” Now, we discovered evidence to support Apple is working on that specific chip. Deep in the iOS 5.1 betas (as shown below) sits references to two next-generation iOS device chips: the previously discussed S5L8945X and this new S5L8950X. While nobody found the 50X (A6) chip in the code until now, we can report that both next-generation processors entered the iOS code simultaneously. This would seem to indicate Apple is working on two next-generation chips.”

Even if it is true that iOS 5.1 will accommodate both the A6 and A5X chips, 9to5Mac admits that there is no way to tell what the appearance of this code will really add up to for consumers. While on one hand it may be fun to speculate that the quad-core A6 chip will debut on the iPad 3, and the A5X chip will be used to power a lesser-priced “mini iPad” or perhaps an update to Apple TV, which Tim Cook recently hinted at. In the end, however, it is also quite possible that the iOS 5.1 code allows for testing of two processor prototypes, only one of which will actually be used in this year’s new mobile devices.

While it is not impossible to imagine apple utilizing multiple processors in multiple devices — both the A4 and A5 chip are currently used, after all — the appearance of the A5X rumor once again brings us to a complex “three’s a crowd” set of chip that is hard to account for: just as it seemed unlikely to imagine an iPhone 4, 4S, and 5 in 2011, it is equally odd to imagine Apple juggling the A4, A5, A5x, and A6 processors in 2012 (though it is less complex to balance multiple chips than multiple devices, I’m sure).

My sense, however, is that what we’re beginning to see here in rumor creep. First, the quad-core A6 rumors dominated. Then, the quad-core A6 rumors were put into question, and the appearance of the rumored A5X chip surfaced. Now, the next iteration of this rumor is that Apple will have both of them in production. In spite of the quasi-compelling iOS 5.1 code evidence, the rumor is still dubious at best.

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Apple Makes It Official: To Announce iPad 3 On March 7th

iPad 3 release date March 7thToday, the mainstream media is reporting on the announcement from Cupertino that there will be an event on March 7th for the iPad 3. Invitations to the media were released today with a typically cryptic, tantalizing tagline: “We have something you really have to see. And touch.”

Speculation has raged for months about what we can expect from the iPad 3. The prevailing belief is that it will feature a dramatically improved retina display, 4G LTE connectivity, and some kind of improvement in the processor. In recent weeks, there has been debate over whether the new chip will be the rumored quad-core A6, or the more recent rumor of a dual-cure “A5X,” which constitutes a refresh of the current A5.

Or, as rumors today suggest, Apple could be producing both, perhaps for use in a “mini iPad” to accompany the standard 9.7-inch version that is expected.

On the invitations to the press, the new photo of the iPad 3 appears to be missing a home button. Computerworld remarks, “If the background is a photograph of the iPad 3 and not digitally manipulated, it hints that the tablet will not sport a physical home button, as have earlier iPads.” This change in the iPad’s design would be a major overhaul in Apple’s mode of navigation for its mobile devices, and would confirm what many have speculated about for years — that Apple would eventually move to replace the physical home button with something new and next-generation. If the iPad 3 is losing the home button, it would not be hard to imagine that the new iPhone 5 will be home button-less as well.

Some are also suggesting that the disappearance of the home button on the iPad 3 could also suggest that Apple is looking to increase the screen size without increasing the dimensions of the tablet itself. Even CNBC‘s own highly-cited article suggests this: “It is expected that the new ipad will have a larger screen, a faster processor and a better camera, said Ashok Kumar, an analyst for Maxim Group.”

To be sure, all of these speculations will be confirmed on March 7th, along with the price of the new iPad 3, which some believe will see an increase from previous iPad models, thanks to the new hardware and design.

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