iPad 3/iPhone 5 Speculation; Post And Riposte

My weekend blog entry indulging in some pre-Christmas i-device speculation sparked some interesting discussion on the forum

Recyclops expressed doubt that the next iPad and iPhone will be powered by Apple’s current A5 dual-core CPU, noting that competitors like the ASUS ee pad transformer already come with quad-core CPUs, adding that he was “extremely disappointed” upon hearing that the A5 in the iPhone 4S wasn’t even a full GHz and had less than one GB of RAM. In a riposte, Brett Said he’s of a mind that the iPad 3, which most of us deduce will be out March / April, probably will have A5 silicon, arguing that it’s a perfectly good processor and he thinks Apple will probably concentrate more on features, including Siri, perhaps more memory and the 8 megapixel camera currently gracing the iPhone 4S.

Meanwhile, LoneWolf is in Recyclops’s camp, suggesting that anything other than the A6 for the iPhone 5 would be a mistake since he assumes it will have LTE, a larger screen, and possibly a smaller form factor, noting that the A6 is rumored to be more energy efficient than the A5 which would help with battery life, something he says Apple won’t be underestimating this time around.

Excellent points all, but provisionally I have to go with Brett on the processor question. The A5 CPU is respectively speedy, and I’m skeptical that the A6 will be ready for a Spring 2012 iPad 3 release. While it isn’t out of the question that Apple would opt to introduce the A6 chip in an iPhone rather than an iPad, I’m skeptical that they will.

Also, one of the major business/Apple blogosphere news stories last week was that A5 processor production has just been shifted to Samsung’s huge new 1.6 million square foot, $3.6bn (closer to $9bn, according to Austin Chamber of Commerce) fabrication facility at Austin, Texas, and I’m thinking that it’s highly doubtful that Samsung would have tooled up their big new chippery to make A5s if Apple was planning a precipitous shift to A6 silicon, at least for the iPad 3 for which component production and stockpiling is reportedly already underway.

As an aside, it’s nice to see some Apple computer hardware component production back in the ‘States, even though the iOS devices the A5 powers are still assembled by Foxconn in China.

Back on the forum, Roger Davies is looking for some major changes in the iPad 3 and iPhone 5, contending the iPad 2 was barely a bump up over the original

“Crappy camera and a slight upgrade in processor? iPad 3 needs to have come in 32gig, 64gig, and 128gig, who could use 16 gig on a video device? That fits 2 movies and basic apps along with a few selected songs Please. Quad core too or I will keep my iPad 1 until the next model Retina is not needed as the screen is fine, why have more resolution than all other Mac devices?”

I agree with Roger about the screen on the point. The current 1024 x 768 resolution suits me just fine, too. However, I expect that we’re going to get a higher-res display in iPad 3 anyway.

I do think Roger is being excessively rough on the iPad 2, and would argue that it was a more substantial departure from the iPad original spec. than he acknowledges.

While the iPad 1′s display was carried over to iPad 2, the latter is significantly thinner (33%), lighter (15%), faster (see below), and has more features than iPad 1. Apple claims that the A5 CPU’s clock speed is double that of the A4 processor in iPad 1, and that graphics processor unit performance of the A5 chipset is nine plus times quicker compared to the one used in iPad (probably 5 – 7 times better real-world performance). RAM is also doubled from the 256 MB in iPad to 512 MB in iPad 2. Those are not trivial upgrades.

I also contend that while the cameras in iPad 2 are indeed mediocre, they beat the whizz out of having no cameras at all. I do hope the 8 megapixel unit from iPhone 4S does migrate to iPad with version 3, bit in the meantime I find the one in my iPad 2 useful.

I’m a big fan of multitasking, and iPad 2 offers better multitasking support thanks to its 1GHz dual-core A5 chip and 512 MB RAM, especially with touch-based application switching in iOS 5, which was a HUGE improvement in my iOS experience.

One report I read said that with both running the same iOS version, iPad 2 delivers about 80% better Safari browser performance than iPad 1, and pages load around 35% faster with iPad 2.

iPad 2 also offers HDMI capability, enabling the user to connect to HDTV via Apple’s optional digital AV adapter, and has HDMI mirroring capability.

Moving along, Normand Rivard questioned why I somewhat wistfully queried whether we could hope for Flash support in the iPad 3 and iPhone 5. Well, I don’t dispute that Flash has manifold shortcomings, but the inconvenient fact remains that Flash os far from dead yet, and as long as there is a lot of Flash video in the Web, Apple’s iOS devices not being able to display it means that you’re locked out of a lot of content.

The main two complaints I hear over and over again from iPad users (including myself) are the absence of Flash support, and the lack of a real USB port for hard-wired connectivity. I don’t have very lively hope that we’ll see either on the iPad 3, but I can still wish we would, because they would improve my iPad experience substantially in a here-and- now practical context.

undfeatable thinks Apple needs to get back on top of new technology and stop releasing it later than other companies, likes the iPad Retina display upgrade, and wants A6 power in both the iPad 3 and iPhone 5, plus a four inch screen (but nothing bigger).

I think two out of three are going to happen, but that we’ll have to wait for perhaps 3S and 5S versions respectively for the A6. However, just to complicate the picture, Digitimes’ Max Wang and Steve Shen reported Friday that Apple is likely to launch a 7.85-inch iPad prior to Q4 2012 in addition to the new iPad 3 scheduled to be released at the end of the first quarter, according to sources in the supply chain.

Wang and Shen note that global shipments of tablet PCs are expected to reach 60 million units in 2011, of which 70% will be Apple’s iPads. However, their insider sources tell them that in order to stay in front of increasing market competition, including the 7-inch Kindle Fire from Amazon and the launch of large-size smartphones from handset vendors, Apple has been persuaded to develop 7.85-inch iPads, with OEMs in the supply chain, including panel makers LG Display and AU Optronics (AUO), likely to begin production of the 7.85-inch models at the end of Q2 2012.

So, if an Apple 7.5″ tablet device is in the works, will it replace the iPod touch at the same $199 price point, or will an iPhone-sized iPod touch continue in tandem? And of course, with telephony internals, a 7.5″ tablet could be a really big-screen iPhone. I’m kidding, I think, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more convergence of features among the iPhone/iPad/iPod families in the future.

iPhone 5:Here To Stay, iPhone 6: Years Away

Much of the discussion here on the blog throughout the Summer of 2011 speculated on the naming of the next iPhone, and how Apple would handle naming the 2012 iPhone, based on what name they chose for their 2011 iteration. At this point, we’ve heard all of the arguments for why the 2012 iPhone should be the “iPhone 5” or “iPhone 6.” And while it will indeed be the sixth generation iPhone, for now, the media and readers have spoken: we are going to refer to the next iPhone as “iPhone 5″ until otherwise informed.

A zany article on PluggedIn today, however, supposes what we might see from the iPhone 6, ostensibly to be released not this year, but sometime in the unforeseen future. Their article is completely speculative, but they have fun imagining that the iPhone 6 could be completely bendable, feature a holographic display, and even an A.I.-powered Siri. On that last note, PluggedIn wonders, “How about giving Siri a personality with some sci-fi style Artificial Intelligence? Users could program the type of personality they want Siri to have, and then build up a genuine friendship with the system. It would bring true meaning to the phrase ‘you’re never alone with a phone.’”

That would indeed be a sci-fi-inspired advancement, and given the rumors that Siri will be even more advanced on the 2012 iPhone 5, it isn’t impossible to imagine that Apple will continue to advance its capabilities on future iPhones.

While we are on the subject of the iPhone 6, however, it is worth noting that, given Apple’s naming strategy over the past three years, we’re unlikely to see the iPhone 6 into as late as 2014.

I don’t have to remind you (but I will) that, for the past three iPhone iterations, we’ve seen the 3GS, 4, and 4S. More importantly, with these three iterations, we also see a research and design pattern developing: refresh, overhaul, and refresh. The iPhone 5 will most definitely deliver an overhaul, thus completing the pattern. With this is mind, it would make no sense to believe that the iPhone 6 will be released in 2013. It is more likely that we’ll see an “iPhone 5S” in 2013, that will utilize whatever new hardware features that will be unveiled with the iPhone 5 in 2012.

This is actually very good news for all of you iPhone 4S early adopters out there, who are beginning to fret over the prospect of missing out on the iPhone 5, due to being locked into a new, prohibitive contract with their 4S. The new screen, form factor, battery, and 4G LTE on the rumored iPhone 5 could all conspire to make for a very bug-filled iPhone iteration, fraught with many problems in the early going. Just as we have seen with other groundbreaking mobile products, tech companies (even Apple) often have to deal with technical glitches even months after the device’s release.

If there is an iPhone 5S in 2013, it will give current iPhone 4S users the opportunity to get onboard the iPhone 5 experience after it has been tried and tested for a year or so; there will be a much higher expectation for quality and reliability for the 5S.

Of course, there is one caveat: it could mean that 4S users are now locked into always having to settle for a refreshed “S” model, instead of being able to experience the excitement of a new, overhauled iPhone. Going back to the PluggedIn piece, if the iPhone 6 is actually two years away at this point, who knows what smartphone technology will look like by then? It may be something so revolutionary that we cannot even characterize it at this point.

And for this point alone, iPhone 4S users might want to skipping not only the iPhone 5 and 5S so that they can experience the iPhone 6 in all of its splendor. But one question remains: will your iPhone 4S’s battery still have any juice left by the time 2014 rolls around?

Apple Acquiring Flash Memory Company For iPhone 5, iPad 3

As we continue to follow the trajectory of a possible iPhone 5 release, we are always keeping an eye on what’s happening with respect to the hardware design and production. Most of the chatter lately about the production of iPhone 5 components have had to do with processors. But today, we’re getting word of Apple possible buying into a flash memory provider.

According to InRumor, Apple is looking to purchase Israel-based Anobit, “a company focused on flash memory and digital signal processing technologies, may become Apple’s research and development center in Israel,” for $400 to $500 million. While analysts believe that Apple is already using Anobit technologies in their products, this rumored purchase of the company comes because “Anobit’s MSP-powered MSP20xx (which stands for ‘Memory Signal Processing’) embedded flash controllers for smartphones and tablets has caught Apple’s attention, as they can improve memory and speed performances.”

IBTimes points out that this acquisition would be “the first purchase with Tim Cook as Apple’s CEO” and that ”the purchase is noteworthy because Apple seldom buys hardware companies.”

Adobe Flash: The Other Kind of Flash for the iPhone 5

For as much as the iPhone and iPad lead the mobile market in many ways, the lack of Flash capabilities on Apple’s devices has been a long-running sore sport for users. Given how many web products utilize Flash to enhance the user experience, the lack of Flash capabilities has created a gaping hole in the overall user experience on the iPhone and iPad, with many websites failing to work in their full capacity, as well as a host of other functions that rely on Flash.

There is no doubt that iPhone and iPad users will be thrilled to see the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 include Flash, should this rumor come to fruition. However, there is one consideration to the development of Flash on the new iPhone and iPad: it plays into the underlying fear that, without Steve Jobs at the R&D helm of Apple, the iPhone might move closer and closer to looking and performing more like an Android smartphone. Other rumors, such as a larger screen and new form factor also play into this lingering question.

It will be interesting to see if Apple can manage to adopt features and functions already found on the Android smartphones for the iPhone 5, while still retaining its unique, iconic identity.

Apple Testing Quad Core CPU For iPhone 5

A new rumor suggests that Apple is testing a new quad core processor for the iPhone 5, ostensibly alongside earlier reports of a stacked 3D design.

When we talk about the proposed chip for the iPhone 5, we typically refer to it as the A6 processor, since Apple will most likely stick to that nomenclature going forward. But just because we are guessing that the next CPU will be called the “A6″ doesn’t necessarily tell us how it will differ from the A5. And new rumors today suggest that Apple currently has a few different iPhone 5 species in the works, testing new processor technologies.

According to InRumor, “The Cupertino-based company is reportedly working on multiple configurations of its next smartphone. German Mac site Macerkopf cites two sources that claim Apple is testing quad-core CPU’s in order to see the viability of a quad-core iPhone. The site also writes that two iPhone models are being tested at present, one equipped with a dual-core, the other with a quad-core processor.” At first, it’s hard to reconcile this new rumor with the long-running belief that the iPhone 5 was close to being released, but was shelved at the last minute due to issues with components. But considering that the 2011 iPhone 5 prototype most likely featured the A5 processor — which may have been the problem in and of itself with the early iPhone 5 prototype — then it becomes more easy to believe that Cupertino feels it needs a much more powerful chip to make the iPhone 5 do what they want it to do.

Like run on LTE and power a larger, more sophisticated screen.

The idea of a quad core A6 processor for the 2012 iPhone 5 is impressive, especially when you consider the processing power of MacBooks. But this isn’t the first time that we’ve heard of impressive, new processor technology coming down the pike for the iPhone 5. On August 29th, Charles Moore reported about a “3D” chip technology for the iPhone 5, stating that “TSMC is applying its latest 28-nanometer process and 3D stacking technologies to produce the A6, which will also benefit from TSMC’s cutting-edge silicon interposer and bump on trace (BOT) methodologies.” It remains to be seen how this technology squares with the quad core rumors, but given the fact that TSMC’s relationship with Apple may have been short-lived, it is possible that Samsung is helping to shape a new design for the A6.

Another thing to consider is how all of these processor rumors for the iPhone 5 will relate to the iPad 3, since it will most definitely make its debut in March, months before the iPhone 5. Charles’ article had stated in August that “It is widely anticipated that the A6 chip will make its public debut in an iPad, although it won’t necessarily be the iPad 3, which is expected to roll out in February or March of next year. However, if rumors that an upgraded iPad 2 with a Retina Display will be released before the iPad 3 — possibly before the end of this year — bear out, that could provide Apple with some breathing space to delay release of the iPad 3 until the A6 is ready toward mid-year.”

Charles was reporting on the “iPad 2 Plus” rumors that abounded in the Summer and, although a Fall 2011 iPad 2 Plus never came to pass, Charles’ comment about the retina display is still valid: if Apple is planning an overhaul of the iPad 3, you can rest assured that its processor will need to support any new advancements. And because we’ll get to see the new processor in the iPad 3 before the iPhone 5, it will give us some insight into what we can expect from the iPhone 5.

 
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